Russia & The Black Swan Theory | Perspective

“Engage people with what they expect; it is what they are able to discern and confirms their projections. It settles them into predicable patterns of response, occupying their minds while you wait for the extraordinary moment – that which they cannot anticipate.” ~ Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Trump’s news this week of steep tariffs on steel and aluminum blindsided our allies, and Americans as well….particularly the GOP leadership. Oh, and Trump’s economic adviser Gary Cohn too, who in light of Trump signing the tariff proclamation, has resigned.

Trump’s extremely flawed notion that tariffs are a winning solution for the 21st Century American economy – especially following the steep corporate tax cuts in December which enrich steel and aluminum companies by 14% – seems flat out delusional. In fact, so delusional that it begs to question what the real motivation is behind this destructive policy.

History has shown us over and over again that Trade Wars lead to World Wars. Thus, who would benefit from such a ruinous course?

An arch enemy, of course…

Russia!

When we factor in the timing of Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, Thursday March 8, 2018, which happens to be within days, possibly hours of Trump meeting with Emmet T. Flood, President Bill Clinton’s impeachment attorney, it’s abundantly clear that the tariff move was reactionary.

Or was it so much more than that?

Trump’s meeting with impeachment attorney Flood, was on the heels of news breaking about Trump ally, George Nader, who has close ties to Russia through the United Emirates, agreed to be a cooperating witness against Trump. Nader gave testimony to a grand jury for Mueller’s Russia Collusion Special Investigation this past week. The timing of Nader’s testimony was apparently particularly worrisome for Trump in light of the fact that Kushner recently had his security clearance down-graded. Hope Hicks had just announced that she’d be departing the White House. Rob Porter resigned on February 7, 2018. So Trump had to find a way to manage the fallout of the scathing news releases about Nader’s testimony, without his supportive inner circle, which this week looked more like an inner dot than a team of skilled advisors. (Is 32 year old Stephen Miller the only one left?)

Did I forget to mention Stormy Daniels? Yes, Stormy Daniels was also drowning the news cycle. By the middle of the week, Wednesday March 7, 201, her attorney had filed a lawsuit claiming that the nondisclosure agreement was invalid because Trump didn’t sign it.

So again, by the end of this week of extreme mayhem, Trump meets with impeachment attorney Flood, then springs the shocking announcement about trade tariffs which the majority of experts agree will result in a dark and damaging Trade War, that will wreak havoc across the global economy. One economist predicted the stock market will drop 40% within the next 18-24 months, millions will lose jobs.

It’s therefor time to be proactive and get out in front of this dire crisis.

I’m left to conclude that:

Yes, Trump did collude with Russia and Mueller will be able to prove it (Mueller probably already is able to prove it; it’s likely that much of the testimony and evidence is sealed)
When Russia and Trump began colluding back in 2013, it appears Russia crafted an Exit Strategy (in case the plot was ever uncovered and could be proven… setting up a back channel between Trump and Russia during the pre-inauguration Seychelles meeting is now provable and appears to be the tip of the iceberg)
Russia is America’s arch enemy, and any potential Exit Strategy is going to be painful. Sure there’s many weapons that could harms us, but a true warmonger like Putin would likely have several creative aggressive alternatives up his sleeve. Like how about economic ruin?
Interestingly, that’s what all the experts were predicting this week…economic ruin from steel and aluminum tariffs.
Seems like a pretty sound Scorched Earth military strategy for an aggressor like Putin and his puppet, Donald J. Trump.

By the way, following 9/11, Congress immediately established the 9/11 Commission, directed by former NJ Governor Thomas Kean, to investigate how our intelligence community missed the red flags with the 9/11 terrorists hiding in plain site. After nearly two years, the Commission concluded that the fault lay with our “failure at imagination.” Our inability to imagine or predict the possibilities.

Which now brings me to The Black Swan Theory...

Quoting from Wikipedia: “The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:

The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event’s massive role in historical affairs.

Thus, I’d like to imagine the following possibility…that Trump did collude with Russia. That warmonger Putin masterminded a horribly devastating Exit Strategy that would bring catastrophic economic ruin to America. That this was woven into the fabric of the Trump campaign and presidency years ago, and became part of Trump’s campaign nucleus. And that Putin’s grand scheme for thwarting the potential consequences when the collusion became provable, and Trump’s ouster certain, was that Trump would set the Exit Strategy in motion by kicking off the Trade War.

I’m confident there’s an army of intelligence agents who are busy projecting and imagining. But in light of all this stunning news the past four weeks, and with midterm elections around the corner, the American public, particularly the GOP, has to take off its blinders and “imagine” the possibilities as well. Senator Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Speaker Ryan, it’s time move into high gear to block this Trade War.